| 22 |
9.13 |
1 |
1 |
Michael Burgess |
of |
Posted on June 7, 2007 at 10:04 AMPermalink Comments (0)Report any abuse or spam
Christmas was my favorite day of the year growing up. Gotta love those presents. Now my favorite day of the year is Draft Day. But unlike many Christmas gifts, baseball draft picks are gifts that keep giving and giving.
Both Christmas Day and Draft Day are times filled with joy and hope for the future. As an adult, the draft has become as exciting as Christmas was for me as a child. First there is the excitement of draft day. Question's quickly morph one into the next: "Who will my team pick?" and "Who are these guys?"
Next is the anticipation of getting players signed and seeing their names in the box scores for the first time. Following the minor league box scores is how I found out that the Twins had signed their 14th round pick Jeff Manship last year.
But I never thought Manship would sign. Manship had been a solid prospect coming out of high school. He would have been drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds of the 2003 draft, if not for his committment to Notre Dame. Injuries and inconsistency plagued him at Notre Dame and signability was again an issue going into the 2006 draft. But he got drafted by the Twins, the best team at getting prospects to the majors, and he signed.
He is on his way to being ranked as a top prospect after his solid 2007 season. Now he hopes to follow Twins prospects Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker from the minors to the Major Leagues. Hopefully your favorite team drafts some players that you can pin your hopes on to improve your team. Best of luck to everyone on Draft Day.
I have sent e-mails to MLBlogs and to MLB themselves. My Blog has been moved into readerless purgatory somehow and no one knows how to correct the issue. So my Blog based around Thursday's draft is falling on blind eyes during the most important time of the year, one could say. Very unfortunate.
I don't know if anyone will ever see or have a chance to read my Mock Draft, but I will do one anyway. Best Guess is listed first, others listed second. and of course, bonus demands and the Boras effect can ruin the best of predictions.
- Tampa Bay-David Price should be the only option
- Kansas City-Rick Porcello, but I would pick Weiters
- Cubs-Josh Vitters, Mike Moustakas, Or Matt Weiters
- Pittsburgh-Matt Weiters, or one of other four from above
- Baltimore-Ross Detwiler, smart pick with pitching coach Leo Mazzone
- Washington-Mike Moustakas or maybe Dan Moskos
- Milwaukee-Phillipe Aumount, Blake Beavan
- Colorado-Matt Dominguez, Dan Moskos, or Jason Heyward, could be wrong
- Arizona-Jason Heyward, Jarrod Parker, Blake Beavan, maybe Beau Mills
- San Francisco-Beau Mills, Aaron Poreda, Devon Mesoraco, Yasmil Grandal
- Seattle-Casey Weathers, Beau Mills, Blake Beavan
- Florida-Blake Beavan, Madison Baumgarner, Jarrod Parker, Michael Main
- Cleveland-Madison Baumgarner, Matt Dominguez, Devon Mesoraco
- Atlanta-Josh Smoker or Jason Heyward if he is still available
- Cincinnati-Kevin Ahrens, Casey Weathers if available, Devon Mesoraco
- Toronto-Dan Moskos, Aaron Poreda, Jarrod Parker, Joe Savery
- Texas-Matt Harvey, Julio Borbon, Michael Main, Joe Savery
- St. Louis-Andrew Brackman, Matt Harvey, James Simmons, Nick Schmidt
- Philadelphia-Jarrod Parker, Devon Mesoraco, Michael Burgess, Matt Harvey
- LA Dodgers-Jake McGeary, or whatever other HS pitcher drops to them
- Toronto-James Simmons, Nick Schmidt, Aaron Poreda, Wes Roemer
- San Francisco-Aaron Poreda, Nick Schmidt, Casey Weathers if he falls
- San Diego-Nick Schmidt, Devon Mesoraco, Nick Noonan
- Texas-Michael Main, Julio Borbon, Andrew Brackman if he falls
- White Sox-Chris Withrow, Devon Mesoraco, Yasmil Grandal
- Oakland-Matt LaPorta, Kyle Russell, Sean Doolittle, Devon Mesoraco
- Detroit-Devon Mesoraco, Tim Alderson, Michael Burgess, Nevin Griffith
- Minnesota-Peter Kozma, Will Middlebrooks, Nick Noonan, Wendell Fairley
- San Francisco-Brett Cecil, Yasmil Grandal, Mitch Canham,
- New York AL-Julio Borbon, Kyle Russell, Michael Burgess, Matt Mangini
The 2005 Aflac High School Baseball Classic brings together 38 of the best draft eligible high school players in the country. Lots of scouts show up to evaluate this select group of talented players. But less than half the players will end up signing contracts and going pro. The players from the 2004 and 2005 Aflac Classics were drafted in 2005 and 2006. In 2006 only 17 of the 38 signed. Less than half of the players signed each year. This will be the third year that Aflac Classic players can be drafted.
| Dellin Betances |
RHP |
6' 9" |
215 |
Grand Street Campus School (Brooklyn, NY) |
| Brent Brewer |
SS/OF |
6' 3" |
195 |
Sandy Creek High School (Tyrone, GA) |
| David Christensen |
OF |
6' 2" |
195 |
Stoneman Douglas High School (Parkland, FL) |
| Andrew Clark |
1B |
6' 2" |
200 |
New Palestine High School (New Palestine, IN) |
| Cedric Hunter |
OF |
6' 1" |
185 |
Martin Luther King High School (Lithonia, GA) |
| Ryan Jackson |
SS |
6' 2" |
170 |
Florida Christian School (Miami, FL) |
| Jeremy Jeffress |
RHP |
6' 1" |
180 |
Halifax County High School (South Boston, VA) |
| Cody Johnson |
1B/OF |
6' 4" |
195 |
Mosley High School (Panama City, FL) |
| Kasey Kiker |
LHP |
5' 11" |
185 |
Russell County High School (Phenix City, AL) |
| Torre Langley |
C |
5' 10" |
175 |
Alexander High School (Winston, GA) |
| Matt Latos |
RHP |
6' 5" |
205 |
Coconut Creek High School (Miami, FL) |
| Chris Marrero |
3B |
6' 3" |
195 |
Monsignor Pace High School (Miami, FL) |
| Cory Rasmus |
RHP/3B |
6' 0" |
198 |
Russell County High School (Phenix City, AL) |
| Derrick Robinson |
OF |
6' 0" |
170 |
P.K. Yonge High School (Archer, FL) |
| Billy Rowell |
3B/SS |
6' 4" |
198 |
Bishop Eustace Prep (Sewell, NJ) |
| Max Sapp |
C |
6' 2" |
210 |
Bishop Moore High School (Windermere, FL) |
| Gerald Sullivan |
RHP |
6' 4" |
195 |
Mt. Olive High School (Budd Lake, NJ) |
| Chris Walden |
RHP |
6' 3" |
181 |
Bellefontaine High School (Bellefontaine, OH) |
| Colton Willems |
RHP |
6' 4" |
190 |
John Carroll High School (Fort Pierce, FL) |
|
|
 |
| Name |
Pos. |
Hgt. |
Wgt. |
School |
| Ryan Adams |
SS |
6' 0" |
185 |
Jesuit High School (Mandeville, LA) |
| Robbie Alcombrack |
3B/C |
6' 1" |
205 |
Bear River High School (Grass Valley, CA) |
| Brett Anderson |
LHP |
6' 4" |
205 |
Stillwater High School (Stillwater, OK) |
| Nathan Bridges |
SS |
6' 1" |
170 |
Villa Park High School (Yorba Linda, CA) |
| Gavin Brooks |
LHP/1B |
6' 3" |
192 |
Rancho Buena Vista High School (Vista, CA) |
| Hank Conger |
3B/C |
6' 0" |
210 |
Huntington Beach High School (Huntington Beach, CA) |
| Kyle Drabek |
RHP/SS |
6' 0" |
190 |
The Woodlands High School (The Woodlands, TX) |
| Grant Green |
SS |
6' 3" |
185 |
Canyon High School (Anaheim Hills, CA) |
| Taylor Hammack |
LHP |
6' 3" |
210 |
Angleton High School (Angleton, TX) |
| Ryan Jenkins |
RHP |
6' 5" |
195 |
Cypress Falls High School (Houston, TX) |
| Aaron Miller |
LHP/1B |
6' 3" |
200 |
Channelview High School (Channelview, TX) |
| Jared Mitchell |
OF |
6' 0" |
195 |
Westgate High School (New Iberia, LA) |
| Chris Parmelee |
1B |
6' 1" |
200 |
Chino Hills High School (Chino Hills, CA) |
| Jeff Rapoport |
OF |
6' 0" |
183 |
Westlake High School (Westlake, CA) |
| Chad Robinson |
RHP |
6' 5" |
205 |
Silverado High School (Las Vegas, NV) |
| Drew Rundle |
OF |
6' 3" |
180 |
Bend High School (Bend, OR) |
| Devin Shepherd |
OF |
6' 4" |
230 |
Oxnard High School (Oxnard, CA) |
| Chris Tillman |
RHP |
6' 5" |
190 |
Fountain Valley High School (Fountain Valley, CA) |
| Jordan Walden |
RHP |
6' 4" |
185 |
Mansfield High School (Mansfield, TX) |
|
And then here is the list of players that signed after being drafted.
Card # Name High School Drafted By in 2006 Round Selected |
Billy Rowell |
Bishop Eustace |
Baltimore Orioles |
1 |
2 of 14 |
Kasey Kiker |
Russell County |
Texas Rangers |
1 |
3 of 14 |
Chris Marrero |
Monsignor Pace |
Nationals |
1 |
4 of 14 |
Jeremy Jeffress |
Halifax County |
Milwaukee Brewers |
1 |
5 of 14 |
Kyle Drabek |
The Woodlands |
Philadelphia Phillies |
1 |
6 of 14 |
Chris Parmelee |
Chino Hills |
Minnesota Twins |
1 |
7 of 14 |
Colton Willems |
John Carroll |
Nationals |
1 |
8 of 14 |
Cody Johnson |
Mosley |
Atlanta Braves |
1 |
9 of 14 |
Hank Conger |
Huntington Beach |
Angels |
1 |
10 of 14 |
Cory Rasmus |
Russell County |
Atlanta Braves |
1 |
11 of 14 |
David Christensen |
Stoneman Douglas |
Colorado Rockies |
2 |
12 of 14 |
Chris Tillman |
Fountain Valley |
Seattle Mariners |
2 |
13 of 14 |
Torre Langley |
Alexander |
Florida Marlins |
3 |
14 of 14 |
Robby Alcombrack |
Bear River |
Cleveland Indians |
7 |
15 Brett Anderson signed late
16 Matt Latos signed late
17 Jonathan Walden signed late
So here is the list of players from the 2006 Aflac Classic. If half of these players look like first rounders, logically then the other half are long shots to sign. But some will sign. So this is a good example of why predicting the baseball draft is more difficult than the football and basketball drafts.
| Alderson, Tim |
| Beavan, Blake |
| Blair, Kyle |
| Britton, Drake |
| Brooks, Steven |
| Bumgarner, Madison |
| Burgess, Michael |
| Colon, Christian |
| Danieli, Evan |
| Davis, Kentrail |
| Demny, Paul |
| Dietrich, Derek |
| Freeman, Freddie |
| Gilmore, Jon |
| Goeddel, Erik |
| Grandal, Yasmani |
| Harvey, Matt |
| Heyward, Jason |
| Jackson, Justin |
| Keyes, Kevin |
| Krill, Brett |
| Leftridge, Joseph |
| LeMahieu, DJ |
| • Main, Michael |
| Morris, Hunter |
| Noonan, Nick |
| Peavey, Greg |
| Porcello, Rick |
| Ramirez, Neil |
| Rams, Danny |
| Robles, Tanner |
| Runion, Sam |
| Rupp, Cameron |
| Smoker, Joshua |
| Stock, Robert |
| Stonecipher, Sequoyah |
| Tolisano, John |
Vitters, Josh
I see these guys as potential first round picks, alphabetical order
- Tim Alderson
- Blake Beavan
- Madison Baumgarner
- Michael Burgess
- Yasmani Grandal
- Matt Harvey
- Jason Heyward
- Michael Main
- Hunter Morris-probably...
- Rick Porcello
- Josh Smoker
- Josh Vitters
|
So that is 12 of the 38 total Aflac players. Lets say that I am right with 10 of the 12. Lets be aggressive and sign that 19 players sign, which is more than ever before. So best estimate is that only 9 of the 26 players that I did not list will sign pro contracts during this draft. So being selected to play in the Aflac classic does not guarentee a Million Dollar bonus the next summer.
I went to the MLB site today, and didn't see my blog on the list of blogs. I have nothing prepared, but I want to save something and see if I show back up. So today will be just some ramblings, no rankings.
This is the last year of the draft-and-follow rule. Players drafted last year that attended junior college could be signed this year before the draft. The biggest names this year were Matt Latos and Jordan Walden. They have both signed big contracts and should start playing around June 20th this year.
The draft-and-follow rule has also been used by Scott Boras to get around signing rules. In 2006, it was Max Scherzer who didn't sign with Arizona, quit college, and gambled that he would get more money by wasting one of the best years of his life. Now he has signed for less money than he turned down last year. He also has a huge target on his back for putting money ahead of the game. My sad prediction for Scherzer is that he will never fully recover from the year away from organized baseball. Injury will be a possibility if he is not prepared for the grind of minor league ball. So he missed one year by holding out. This year he will try to build up strength. But if he gets hurts and needs surgery, then he misses another year, then after a year of rehab, he looks forward to another year of building up strength again. So his timetable could have him making his major league debut in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, or never.
Don't forget that the early part of the draft is being televised on ESPN2. The draft has also been moved to Thursday and Friday this year. Each year I take the first Tuesday in June off for the draft. So this year, I had to change my request.
If you want to test your drafting ability, find out when your team drafts, and make your own picks. I always draft in the Twins draft position. You can do this real time by choosing an undrafted player. Or you can do a delayed draft, where you choose players the following day. Some of my most successful picks have been drafting Jake Peavy in the 6th round of the 1999 draft and Dontrelle Willis in the 3rd round in the 2000 draft. Both of those players would look great in the Twins rotation this year.
Most draft information get compilied on the the top players available. But after the first five rounds, there are still 45 more rounds left to draft players. Teams use these later picks on a combination of high ceiling raw physically talented athletes and lower ceiling hard working baseball players that know how to play the game. Here are some lists of players that won't be top picks, but they could still get drafted and given a chance to reach the majors.
| Troy |
Clint Robinson |
1B |
|
6*4 |
225 |
Senior |
.370-219-17-65-29-30-1 |
| So Bama |
Cunningham, Jeff |
1B |
L/R |
6*3 |
215 |
Jr. |
.350-183-22-64-38-53-4 |
| C of Charl |
Graham Maiden |
1B |
L/L |
6*3 |
215 |
Sr. |
.371-178-10-41-16-15-3 |
| U of Az |
Ziegler, C.J. |
1B |
R/R |
6*4 |
225 |
Jr. |
.347-199-10-56-28-34-0 |
| Hawaii |
Kris Sanchez |
1B |
|
6*3 |
220 |
Sr. |
.364-206-10-63-28-42-1 |
| Memphis |
Adam Amar |
1b |
R-R |
6*4 |
235 |
Sr. |
.352-213-5-42-20-20-3 |
| U of W |
Rindal, Curt |
1B |
R/R |
6*3 |
215 |
SR |
.350-214-9-48-16-28-0 |
| MissippiSt |
Mitch Moreland |
1B |
L-L |
6*2 |
228 |
Jr. |
.342-202-7-50-29-25-1 |
| La Tech |
Albie Goulder |
1B |
|
6*3 |
205 |
jr |
.327-196-14-51-26-34-3 |
| NotreDame |
Mike Dury |
1B |
S/L |
6*5 |
240 |
SR |
.246-179-9-35-24-49-4 |
| Michigan |
Nate Recknagel* |
1B |
R-R |
6*2 |
215 |
Jr. |
.358-193-10-54-40-36-4 |
| MissippiSt |
Brian LaNinfa |
1B |
L-R |
6*0 |
220 |
Sr. |
.321-184-4-42-20-35-1 |
| Ok St |
Ridling, Rebel |
1B |
R/R |
6*3 |
225 |
Jr. |
.336-232-11-62-15-57-1 |
| Tex |
Chance Wheeless |
1B |
|
6*5 |
220 |
Sr.-3L |
.356-208-4-32-32-22-4 |
| Flor Int'l |
Petika, John |
1B |
L/L |
6*2 |
210 |
Jr. |
.342-219-7-56-9-26-2 |
| Or St |
Lennerton, Jordan |
1B |
L/L |
6*2 |
230 |
Jr. |
.327-159-6-42-26-31-0 |
| Ark |
Hamblin, Danny |
1B |
R/R |
6*1 |
209 |
Sr. |
.278-205-20-54-28-61-2 |
| USC |
Lucas Duda |
1B |
|
6*5 |
240 |
JR |
.275-171-6-31-29-32-3 |
| Maine |
Joel Barrett |
1B |
R/R |
6*1 |
220 |
SR |
.364-184-7-38-25-19-2 |
| LSU |
Jordan Mayer |
1B |
R/R |
6*3 |
257 |
Jr. |
.213-61-4-8-9-16-2 |
| J Madison |
Moses, Mitchell |
1B |
|
6'3" |
220 |
r-Sr. |
.347-150-4-20-33-18 |
| Louisville |
Jorge Castillo |
1B |
L/R |
6*1 |
235 |
JR |
.290-183-4-42-8-24-1 |
| South Flor |
Daniel, Brandin |
1B |
L/L |
6*1 |
220 |
Jr. |
.270-200-7-45-25-57-0 |
| Wichita |
Jackson, Danny |
1B |
R/R |
6*3 |
220 |
RSr. |
.317-120-4-22-8-27-1 |
| Elon |
Chris Vasami |
1B |
R/R |
6*4 |
235 |
Sr. |
.315-197-5-44-21-44-2 |
| Memphis |
Joey Lieberman |
1B |
R-R |
5*10 |
210 |
Sr. |
.286-220-12-52-29-53-0 |
| Florida St |
Brandon Reichert |
1B |
RR |
6*3 |
215 |
RS SR |
.313-201-3-46-15-24-1 |
Many college players end up playing out of position, wherever the team needs them to play. So they often play numerous positions during the year. Because of this many college rosters list players not at a position, but as "Infielders". So I will have lists of players for each position, add also "infielders".
| Ok St |
Mach, Tyler |
2B |
R/R |
6*0 |
207 |
Sr. |
.408-223-15-73-21-24-1 |
| ASU |
Eric Sogard |
2B |
L/R |
5*10 |
180 |
Jr./2V |
.399-203-10-51-37-22-16 |
| C of Charl |
Chris Campbell |
2B |
R/R |
5*10 |
170 |
Sr. |
.388-255-10-77-17-14-4 |
| Flor Atlant |
Robbie Widlansky |
2B |
|
6*2 |
210 |
JR |
.445-227-15-67-23-27-9 |
| So Missip |
Trey Sutton |
2B |
L/R |
6*0 |
175 |
JR |
.370-235-7-37-34-19-12 |
| Minnesota |
Dan Lyons |
Posted on May 31, 2007 at 1:48 PMPermalink Comments (0)Report any abuse or spam
When the draft starts next Thursday the Number One overall pick will be one of three players. Tampa Bay will select either David Price, college pitcher, Matt Weiters, college catcher, or Josh Vitters, high school third baseman.
Each of the 30 major league clubs will spend the next seven days cramming for the draft, baseballs equivelent of a final exam. And each teams draft list will be different. Sure, most of the top players on one teams list will look much like other teams lists. But after the first round, the lists are very different. Some teams will have 80 high school players in their top 100 players. Other teams could have a majority of college players on their list. Ten years from now, we will know who had the best draft.
My list of the top 100 players has changed over the last three weeks. Some players like HS 3B Will Middlebrooks and HS OF Cory Vaughn (son of Greg Vaughn) have moved up the list. Others like Clemson lefty Dan Moskos, Oklahoma State 3B Matt Mangini, and offense-first college catchers J.P. Arencibia and Mitch Canhamn have moved down the list. Like I said, there are 30 teams with thirty different draft lists, and my list is just one more.
| 1 |
David Price |
P |
C |
L-L |
6*5 |
195 |
| 2 |
Matt Wieters |
C |
C |
B-R |
6*4 |
205 |
| 3 |
Josh Vitters |
3b |
H |
R-R |
6*3 |
195 |
| 4 |
Rick Porcello |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*5 |
188 |
| 5 |
Mike Moustakas |
3b |
H |
L-R |
6*1 |
185 |
| 6 |
Phillippe Aumont |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*7 |
225 |
| 7 |
Jason Heyward |
of |
H |
L-L |
6*2 |
198 |
| 8 |
Blake Beavan |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*7 |
210 |
| 9 |
Ross Detwiler |
P |
C |
L-L |
|
|
| 10 |
Beau Mills |
1B |
C |
L-R |
6*3 |
205 |
| 11 |
Matt Dominguez |
3b |
H |
R-R |
6*2 |
185 |
| 12 |
MadisonBumgarner |
P |
H |
R-L |
6*5 |
220 |
| 13 |
Michael Main |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*1 |
171 |
| 14 |
Josh Smoker |
P |
H |
L-L |
6*2 |
190 |
| 15 |
Matt LaPorta |
1b |
C |
|
|
|
| 16 |
Andrew Brackman |
p |
C |
R-R |
6*9 |
230 |
| 17 |
Casey Weathers |
P |
C |
R-R |
|
|
| 18 |
Tim Alderson |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*7 |
208 |
| 19 |
Kevin Ahrens |
3b |
H |
B-R |
6*1 |
180 |
| 20 |
Devon Mesaraco |
C |
H |
|
|
|
| 21 |
Nevin Griffith |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*4 |
180 |
| 22 |
Jarrod Parker |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*0 |
175 |
| 23 |
Matt Harvey |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*4 |
190 |
| 24 |
Will Middlebrooks |
3b |
H |
|
6*4 |
200 |
| 25 |
Daniel Moskos |
P |
C |
L-L |
6*1 |
190 |
| 26 |
Michael Burgess |
of |
H |
L-L |
5*11 |
200 |
| 27 |
Todd Frazier |
3B |
C |
R-R |
6*3 |
195 |
| 28 |
Corey Borwn |
of |
C |
L-L |
6*2 |
210 |
| 29 |
Kellen Kulbacki |
of |
C |
|
|
|
| 30 |
Brett Cecil |
p |
C |
R-L |
6*2 |
225 |
| 31 |
Nick Schmidt |
P |
C |
L-L |
6*4 |
215 |
| 32 |
Brad Suttle |
3b |
C |
|
|
|
| 33 |
Travis d'Arnaud |
C |
H |
R-R |
6*0 |
180 |
| 34 |
Jack McGeary |
P |
H |
L-L |
6*3 |
200 |
| 35 |
Kyle Blair |
P |
H |
R-R |
6*4 |
200 |
| 36 |
Drew Cumberland |
ss |
H |
L-R |
5*10 |
170 |
| 37 |
Joe Savery |
1B |
C |
L-L |
6*3 |
210 |
| 38 |
Kyle Russell |
of |
C |
|
|
|
| 39 |
Peter Kozma |
ss |
H |
R-R |
Posted on May 31, 2007 at 9:40 AMPermalink Comments (0)Tags: First Year Player DraftReport any abuse or spam
Thanks again for the reader comments. Here are the answers:
#1 "Who out of this years draft do you see being in the show quickest and able to make an impact?"
The players I see making it to the majors the quickest would mostly be the bullpen guys. Guys like Brett Cecil from Maryland, Wynn Pelzer from Clemson, Cole St. Clair from Texas Eddie Kunz from Oregon State, Sam Demel from TCU, Jordan Chambless from Tx A&M, Casey Weathers from Vanderbilt, and Blair Erickson from Cal-Irvine could all make a quick rise to the majors. But it all depends on the teams that draft them. Looking at the hitters, I would say that Matt LaPorta from Florida, Matt Weiters of Georgia Tech, Kellen Kulbacki of James Madison, and Beau Mills of Lewis & Clark have the best chance. Starting pitchers get fast-tracked based on team need as well. That being said, I could see both Ross Detwiler and David Price in the majors sometime in 2008. Plus there is always the chance that Price goes straight to the majors if he gets a Major League contract from Tampa Bay as the #1 overall pick. It doesn't happen very often, but it could happen.
#2 "What about the sensational left-hander, John Flanagan, from Belleville West (IL) High School?? Where do you see him in the overall picture?"
John Flanagan appears to be a solid, successful high school pitcher. He is a 6'5" left-hander with excellent command. He also sounds like he is leaning toward signing rather than going to college. All these things lead me to believe he will drafted anywhere between the 3rd-6th rounds. Seattle does a good job of drafting local players from the Pacific Northwest. So they could possibly pick Flanagan a little early, possibly with the 52nd overall pick they received from Kansas City for signing Gil Meche.
#3 "Great stuff, I am assuming you are waiting to see if guys like Scherzer, Latos and Walden sign. Where would they be rated if they were included?"
Great question! Latos and Walden were in my opinion two of the top high school pitchers from last years draft. They dropped in last years draft and went to junior college. If they don't sign before the draft, they would both be first round picks in 2007. Scherzer would be best served by signing before the draft. Being represented by Scott Boras is a huge handicap for players wanting to start major league careers. He has done his part to wreck more careers than any other agent. Scherzer is currently pitching independant league ball. Reports have his velocity in the low 90's, but his fastball is straight and hittable. So he could be the next Alan Embree, instead of the next Barry Zito. If he goes back into the draft, the Cardinals might be interested with either pick 18, or pick 36. I could also see Detroit taking him at #27, the Yankees at pick 30, or the pitching starved Washington Nationals at pick 31.
Jonathan Mayo has his draft chat going right now. So hopefully some of you "draft-heads" out there are joining in the fun. The servers at work will not allow me access. I have updated my Top 100 list somewhat, and I will do so again next week. Enjoy the rankings and have a good weekend.
| 1 |
David Price |
P |
C |
| 2 |
Josh Vitters |
3b |
H |
| 3 |
Rick Porcello |
P |
H |
| 4 |
Matt Wieters-1b-p |
C |
C |
| 5 |
Beau Mills |
1B |
C |
| 6 |
Andrew Brackman |
p |
C |
| 7 |
Mike Moustakas-c |
3b |
H |
| 8 |
Jason Heyward |
of |
H |
| 9 |
Matt Harvey |
P |
H |
| 10 |
Ross Detwiler |
P |
C |
| 11 |
Phillippe Aumont |
P |
H |
| 12 |
Matt Dominguez |
3b |
H |
| 13 |
Matt LaPorta |
1b |
C |
| 14 |
Blake Beavan |
P |
H |
| 15 |
Daniel Moskos |
P |
C |
| 16 |
MadisonBumgarner |
P |
H |
| 17 |
Jarrod Parker |
P |
H |
| 18 |
Michael Main-of |
P |
H |
| 19 |
Josh Smoker |
P |
H |
| 20 |
Casey Weathers |
P |
C |
| 21 |
Brett Cecil |
p |
C |
| 22 |
Jack McGeary-1b |
P |
H |
| 23 |
Matt Mangini |
3b |
C |
| 24 |
Yasmani Grandal |
C |
H |
| 25 |
Julio Borbon |
OF |
C |
| 26 |
Tim Alderson |
P |
H |
| 27 |
Todd Frazier-of-ss |
3B |
C |
| 28 |
Nick Schmidt |
P |
C |
| 29 |
Joe Savery |
1B |
C |
| 30 |
Grant Desme |
of |
C |
| 31 |
Peter Kozma |
ss |
H |
| 32 |
Michael Burgess |
of |
H |
| 33 |
Kentrail Davis |
of |
H |
| 34 |
Neil Ramirez |
P |
H |
| 35 |
Justin Jackson |
ss |
H |
| 36 |
Cole St.Clair |
P |
C |
| 37 |
Tanner Robles |
P |
H |
| 38 |
Nick Noonan-2b |
ss |
H |
| 39 |
Kevin Ahrens |
3b |
H |
| 40 |
James Simmons |
P |
C |
| 41 |
Mitch Canham |
C |
C |
| 42 |
Devon Mesaraco |
C |
H |
| 43 |
Wendell Fairley |
of |
H |
| 44 |
Kyle Russell |
of |
C |
| 45 |
Tony Thomas |
2B |
c |
| 46 |
Andrew Lambo-of |
1b |
H |
| 47 |
Eric Eiland |
of |
H |
| 48 |
Jake Arrieta |
P |
C |
| 49 |
Brad Suttle |
3b |
C |
| 50 |
Sean Morgan |
P |
C |
| 51 |
J.P. Arencibia |
C |
C |
| 52 |
Adrian Ortiz |
OF |
C |
| 53 |
Sean Doolittle-lhp |
1B |
C |
| 54 |
Ryan Dent-ss-cf |
2B |
H |
| 55 |
James Adkins |
P |
C |
| 56 |
Josh Horton |
SS |
C |
| 57 |
Danny Worth |
ss |
c |
| 58 |
Wynn Pelzer |
P |
C |
| 59 |
Wes Roemer |
P |
C |
| 60 |
Hunter Morris-of |
1b |
H |
| 61 |
Brandon Hicks |
ss |
C |
| 62 |
Curt Casali-def |
C |
H |
| 63 |
Kellen Kulbacki |
of |
C |
| 64 |
Kevin Patterson-c |
1b |
H |
| 65 |
Joshua Fields |
p |
C |
| 66 |
Brett Krill |
of |
H |
Posted on May 11, 2007 at 12:06 PMPermalink Comments (4)Report any abuse or spam
Many thanks to the people that found my blog and left comments. Today I want to take a moment to talk about putting together a draft list. Specifically, in response to Kevin Ahrens and Jarrod Parker being ranked too low on my first Top 100 list. It is very possible that they both are too low. I had Ahrens listed at 54, which makes him a supplemental 1st round pick. Then I had Parker at 69, which is a high 2nd round pick. Ten years from now, we will know where they should have been ranked.
For fun, lets see what happened twenty years ago in the 1987 draft
The list function is throwing data everywhere. Please use this link to see the list. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/1987/Round-1-1.shtml
Hindsight is 20-20 when it comes to the draft. So in hindsight seven of the top ten teams drafting in 1987 didn't have players ranked properly. So if I am wrong, I am not alone.
One thing to keep in mind when looking at the draft is that every team has their own scouts and ranks players on their own. Since it is mathematically impossible for 30 different teams to rank prospects identically, everyone has a different list when they go into the draft. My list could be similar to some teams, and very different from other teams. But nobody knows for sure. My plan is to publish my Top 100 list about once a week, so I can provide the best info that I have.
The same mathematical phenomena takes place in weekly polls of major college sports. A bunch of experts, and/or coaches are polled, and everybody's list is slightly different. That doesn't mean one expert is smarter than all the others. It just means that people have different opinions. You will also often notice that the polls don't agree with each other. The 20th place team on one poll could be ranked 17th and 21st on different polls in the same week. I will get my updated list here in next couple of days.
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