Top 500

Here it is. My final Top 100, then some. It will be interesting to see how many of the top 100 on my list are picked ni the top 100 today. I am hoping for a 70% success rate.

rank 20 r name pos R ht wt stats school
1 19 1 1 David Price P L-L 6*5 195 C 2.88-59-43-15-89-.203 Vanderbilt
2 18 1 1 Rick Porcello-*** P R-R 6*5 188 H NortCarolina
3 17 1 1 Matt Wieters-*** C B-R 6*4 205 C 325-120-6-33-27-20-1/1 Georgia Tech
4 16 1 1 Mike Moustakas-boras 3b L-R 6*1 185 H committed to… Southern Cal
5 15 1 1 Josh Vitters 3b R-R 6*3 195 H Arizona State
6 14 1 1 Ross Detwiler P L-L C 1.87-43-25-17-50-.168 Missouri State
7 13 1 1 Phillippe Aumont P R-R 6*7 225 H 91-96 raw undecided
8 12 1 1 Blake Beavan-slot P R-R 6*7 210 H 91-96 effort, recoil, stud Oklahoma
9 11.2 1 1 Jason Heyward OF L-L 6*2 198 H UCLA
10 11 1 1 Josh Smoker P L-L 6*2 190 H Clemson
11 10.8 1 1 Matt Harvey-*** P R-R 6*4 190 H NortCarolina
12 10.5 1 1 Beau Mills 1B L-R 6*3 205 C 462-130-13-56-11-12-1/1 LewisClark
13 10.4 1 1s Matt LaPorta 1b C 435-110-15-37-27-9-2/2 Florida
14 10.3 1 1s Michael Main-of P R-R 6*1 171 H Florida State
15 10.1 1 1s Andrew Brackman p R-R 6*9 230 C 3.42-47-45-18-45-.251 NorCarolinaSt
16 9.21 1 1s Matt Dominguez 3b R-R 6*2 185 H hit=50 ,pow=60, arm=60,  d=50 Fullerton
17 9.19 1 1 MadisonBumgarner P R-L 6*5 220 H 89-95 NortCarolina
18 9.18 1 1 Kevin Ahrens-pop 3b B-R 6*1 180 H poss 1sr rdr, good hands, plus tools, slo Texas A&M
19 9.17 1 1s Will Middlebrook ?ts 3b R-R 6*4 200 H power nice arm, Ripken
20 9.15 1 1s Nick Noonan-2b ss L-R 6*1 175 H check on milb Clemson
21 9.14 1 1s Travis Mattair-ss 3b R-R 6*5 215 H power, arm, hands, ++makeup Oregon State
22 9.13 1 1 Michael Burgess of
  • Posted on June 7, 2007 at 10:04 AM
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  • Christmas Day = Draft Day

    Christmas was my favorite day of the year growing up.  Gotta love those presents.  Now my favorite day of the year is Draft Day.  But unlike many Christmas gifts, baseball draft picks are gifts that keep giving and giving. 

    Both Christmas Day and Draft Day are times filled with joy and hope for the future.  As an adult, the draft has become as exciting as Christmas was for me as a child.  First there is the excitement of draft day.  Question's quickly morph one into the next: "Who will my team pick?"  and "Who are these guys?" 

    Next is the anticipation of getting players signed and seeing their names in the box scores for the first time.  Following the minor league box scores is how I found out that the Twins had signed their 14th round pick Jeff Manship last year.   

    But I never thought Manship would sign.  Manship had been a solid prospect coming out of high school.  He would have been drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds of the 2003 draft, if not for his committment to Notre Dame.  Injuries and inconsistency plagued him at Notre Dame and signability was again an issue going into the 2006 draft.  But he got drafted by the Twins, the best team at getting prospects to the majors, and he signed. 

    He is on his way to being ranked as a top prospect after his solid 2007 season.  Now he hopes to follow Twins prospects Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker from the minors to the Major Leagues.  Hopefully your favorite team drafts some players that you can pin your hopes on to improve your team.  Best of luck to everyone on Draft Day.

    Mock Draft -1st Round

    I have sent e-mails to MLBlogs and to MLB themselves.  My Blog has been moved into readerless purgatory somehow and no one knows how to correct the issue.  So my Blog based around Thursday's draft is falling on blind eyes during the most important time of the year, one could say.  Very unfortunate.

    I don't know if anyone will ever see or have a chance to read my Mock Draft, but I will do one anyway.  Best Guess is listed first, others listed second.  and of course, bonus demands and the Boras effect can ruin the best of predictions.

    1. Tampa Bay-David Price should be the only option
    2. Kansas City-Rick Porcello, but I would pick Weiters
    3. Cubs-Josh Vitters, Mike Moustakas, Or Matt Weiters
    4. Pittsburgh-Matt Weiters, or one of other four from above
    5. Baltimore-Ross Detwiler, smart pick with pitching coach Leo Mazzone
    6. Washington-Mike Moustakas or maybe Dan Moskos
    7. Milwaukee-Phillipe Aumount, Blake Beavan
    8. Colorado-Matt Dominguez, Dan Moskos, or Jason Heyward, could be wrong
    9. Arizona-Jason Heyward, Jarrod Parker, Blake Beavan, maybe Beau Mills
    10. San Francisco-Beau Mills, Aaron Poreda, Devon Mesoraco, Yasmil Grandal
    11. Seattle-Casey Weathers, Beau Mills, Blake Beavan
    12. Florida-Blake Beavan, Madison Baumgarner, Jarrod Parker, Michael Main
    13. Cleveland-Madison Baumgarner, Matt Dominguez, Devon Mesoraco
    14. Atlanta-Josh Smoker or Jason Heyward if he is still available
    15. Cincinnati-Kevin Ahrens, Casey Weathers if available, Devon Mesoraco
    16. Toronto-Dan Moskos, Aaron Poreda, Jarrod Parker, Joe Savery
    17. Texas-Matt Harvey, Julio Borbon, Michael Main, Joe Savery
    18. St. Louis-Andrew Brackman, Matt Harvey, James Simmons, Nick Schmidt
    19. Philadelphia-Jarrod Parker, Devon Mesoraco, Michael Burgess, Matt Harvey
    20. LA Dodgers-Jake McGeary, or whatever other HS pitcher drops to them
    21. Toronto-James Simmons, Nick Schmidt, Aaron Poreda, Wes Roemer
    22. San Francisco-Aaron Poreda, Nick Schmidt, Casey Weathers if he falls
    23. San Diego-Nick Schmidt, Devon Mesoraco, Nick Noonan
    24. Texas-Michael Main, Julio Borbon, Andrew Brackman if he falls
    25. White Sox-Chris Withrow, Devon Mesoraco, Yasmil Grandal
    26. Oakland-Matt LaPorta, Kyle Russell, Sean Doolittle, Devon Mesoraco
    27. Detroit-Devon Mesoraco, Tim Alderson, Michael Burgess, Nevin Griffith
    28. Minnesota-Peter Kozma, Will Middlebrooks, Nick Noonan, Wendell Fairley
    29. San Francisco-Brett Cecil, Yasmil Grandal, Mitch Canham,
    30. New York AL-Julio Borbon, Kyle Russell, Michael Burgess, Matt Mangini

    Alfac Effect-1st Round or college

    The 2005 Aflac High School Baseball Classic brings together 38 of the best draft eligible high school players in the country.  Lots of scouts show up to evaluate this select group of talented players.  But less than half the players will end up signing contracts and going pro.  The players from the 2004 and 2005 Aflac Classics were drafted in 2005 and 2006.  In 2006 only 17 of the 38 signed.  Less than half of the players signed each year.  This will be the third year that Aflac Classic players can be drafted.

    Dellin Betances RHP 6' 9" 215 Grand Street Campus School
    (Brooklyn, NY)
    Brent Brewer SS/OF 6' 3" 195 Sandy Creek High School
    (Tyrone, GA)
    David Christensen OF 6' 2" 195 Stoneman Douglas High School
    (Parkland, FL)
    Andrew Clark 1B 6' 2" 200 New Palestine High School
    (New Palestine, IN)
    Cedric Hunter OF 6' 1" 185 Martin Luther King High School
    (Lithonia, GA)
    Ryan Jackson SS 6' 2" 170 Florida Christian School
    (Miami, FL)
    Jeremy Jeffress RHP 6' 1" 180 Halifax County High School
    (South Boston, VA)
    Cody Johnson 1B/OF 6' 4" 195 Mosley High School
    (Panama City, FL)
    Kasey Kiker LHP 5' 11" 185 Russell County High School
    (Phenix City, AL)
    Torre Langley C 5' 10" 175 Alexander High School
    (Winston, GA)
    Matt Latos RHP 6' 5" 205 Coconut Creek High School
    (Miami, FL)
    Chris Marrero 3B 6' 3" 195 Monsignor Pace High School
    (Miami, FL)
    Cory Rasmus RHP/3B 6' 0" 198 Russell County High School
    (Phenix City, AL)
    Derrick Robinson OF 6' 0" 170 P.K. Yonge High School
    (Archer, FL)
    Billy Rowell 3B/SS 6' 4" 198 Bishop Eustace Prep
    (Sewell, NJ)
    Max Sapp C 6' 2" 210 Bishop Moore High School
    (Windermere, FL)
    Gerald Sullivan RHP 6' 4" 195 Mt. Olive High School
    (Budd Lake, NJ)
    Chris Walden RHP 6' 3" 181 Bellefontaine High School
    (Bellefontaine, OH)
    Colton Willems RHP 6' 4" 190 John Carroll High School
    (Fort Pierce, FL)
    2005 West Team
    Name Pos. Hgt. Wgt. School
    Ryan Adams SS 6' 0" 185 Jesuit High School
    (Mandeville, LA)
    Robbie Alcombrack 3B/C 6' 1" 205 Bear River High School
    (Grass Valley, CA)
    Brett Anderson LHP 6' 4" 205 Stillwater High School
    (Stillwater, OK)
    Nathan Bridges SS 6' 1" 170 Villa Park High School
    (Yorba Linda, CA)
    Gavin Brooks LHP/1B 6' 3" 192 Rancho Buena Vista High School
    (Vista, CA)
    Hank Conger 3B/C 6' 0" 210 Huntington Beach High School
    (Huntington Beach, CA)
    Kyle Drabek RHP/SS 6' 0" 190 The Woodlands High School
    (The Woodlands, TX)
    Grant Green SS 6' 3" 185 Canyon High School
    (Anaheim Hills, CA)
    Taylor Hammack LHP 6' 3" 210 Angleton High School
    (Angleton, TX)
    Ryan Jenkins RHP 6' 5" 195 Cypress Falls High School
    (Houston, TX)
    Aaron Miller LHP/1B 6' 3" 200 Channelview High School
    (Channelview, TX)
    Jared Mitchell OF 6' 0" 195 Westgate High School
    (New Iberia, LA)
    Chris Parmelee 1B 6' 1" 200 Chino Hills High School
    (Chino Hills, CA)
    Jeff Rapoport OF 6' 0" 183 Westlake High School
    (Westlake, CA)
    Chad Robinson RHP 6' 5" 205 Silverado High School
    (Las Vegas, NV)
    Drew Rundle OF 6' 3" 180 Bend High School
    (Bend, OR)
    Devin Shepherd OF 6' 4" 230 Oxnard High School
    (Oxnard, CA)
    Chris Tillman RHP 6' 5" 190 Fountain Valley High School
    (Fountain Valley, CA)
    Jordan Walden RHP 6' 4" 185 Mansfield High School
    (Mansfield, TX)

    And then here is the list of players that signed after being drafted.

    Card #                        Name                       High School                  Drafted By in 2006    Round Selected


    1 of 14
    Billy Rowell
    Bishop Eustace
    Baltimore Orioles
    1
    2 of 14
    Kasey Kiker
    Russell County
    Texas Rangers
    1
    3 of 14
    Chris Marrero
    Monsignor Pace
    Nationals
    1
    4 of 14
    Jeremy Jeffress
    Halifax County
    Milwaukee Brewers
    1
    5 of 14
    Kyle Drabek
    The Woodlands
    Philadelphia Phillies
    1
    6 of 14
    Chris Parmelee
    Chino Hills
    Minnesota Twins
    1
    7 of 14
    Colton Willems
    John Carroll
    Nationals
    1
    8 of 14
    Cody Johnson
    Mosley
    Atlanta Braves
    1
    9 of 14
    Hank Conger
    Huntington Beach
    Angels
    1
    10 of 14
    Cory Rasmus
    Russell County
    Atlanta Braves
    1
    11 of 14
    David Christensen
    Stoneman Douglas
    Colorado Rockies
    2
    12 of 14
    Chris Tillman
    Fountain Valley
    Seattle Mariners
    2
    13 of 14
    Torre Langley
    Alexander
    Florida Marlins
    3
    14 of 14
    Robby Alcombrack
    Bear River
    Cleveland Indians
    7

    15   Brett Anderson signed late

    16   Matt Latos signed late

    17   Jonathan Walden signed late

    So here is the list of players from the 2006 Aflac Classic.  If half of these players look like first rounders, logically then the other half are long shots to sign.  But some will sign.  So this is a good example of why predicting the baseball draft is more difficult than the football and basketball drafts.

    So that is 12 of the 38 total Aflac players.  Lets say that I am right with 10 of the 12.  Lets be aggressive and sign that 19 players sign, which is more than ever before.   So best estimate is that only 9 of the 26 players that I did not list will sign pro contracts during this draft.  So being selected to play in the Aflac classic does not guarentee a Million Dollar bonus the next summer. 

    Draft-and-follows sign

    I went to the MLB site today, and didn't see my blog on the list of blogs.  I have nothing prepared, but I want to save something and see if I show back up.  So today will be just some ramblings, no rankings.

    This is the last year of the draft-and-follow rule.  Players drafted last year that attended junior college could be signed this year before the draft.  The biggest names this year were Matt Latos and Jordan Walden.  They have both signed big contracts and should start playing around June 20th this year. 

    The draft-and-follow rule has also been used by Scott Boras to get around signing rules.  In 2006, it was Max Scherzer who didn't sign with Arizona, quit college, and gambled that he would get more money by wasting one of the best years of his life.  Now he has signed for less money than he turned down last year.  He also has a huge target on his back for putting money ahead of the game.  My sad prediction for Scherzer is that he will never fully recover from the year away from organized baseball.  Injury will be a possibility if he is not prepared for the grind of minor league ball.   So he missed one year by holding out.  This year he will try to build up strength.  But if he gets hurts and needs surgery, then he misses another year, then after a year of rehab, he looks forward to another year of building up strength again.  So his timetable could have him making his major league debut in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, or never.

    Don't forget that the early part of the draft is being televised on ESPN2.  The draft has also been moved to Thursday and Friday this year.   Each year I take the first Tuesday in June off for the draft.  So this year, I had to change my request.

    If you want to test your drafting ability, find out when your team drafts, and make your own picks.  I always draft in the Twins draft position.  You can do this real time by choosing an undrafted player.  Or you can do a delayed draft, where you choose players the following day.  Some of my most successful picks have been drafting Jake Peavy in the 6th round of the 1999 draft and Dontrelle Willis in the 3rd round in the 2000 draft.  Both of those players would look great in the Twins rotation this year.

    2nd Tier College-Infielders

    Most draft information get compilied on the the top players available.  But after the first five rounds, there are still 45 more rounds left to draft players.  Teams use these later picks on a combination of high ceiling raw physically talented athletes and lower ceiling hard working baseball players that know how to play the game.  Here are some lists of players that won't be top picks, but they could still get drafted and given a chance to reach the majors.

    Troy Clint  Robinson 1B 6*4 225 Senior .370-219-17-65-29-30-1
    So Bama Cunningham, Jeff 1B L/R 6*3 215 Jr. .350-183-22-64-38-53-4
    C of Charl Graham Maiden 1B L/L 6*3 215 Sr. .371-178-10-41-16-15-3
    U of Az Ziegler, C.J. 1B R/R 6*4 225 Jr. .347-199-10-56-28-34-0
    Hawaii Kris Sanchez 1B 6*3 220 Sr. .364-206-10-63-28-42-1
    Memphis Adam Amar 1b R-R 6*4 235 Sr. .352-213-5-42-20-20-3
    U of W Rindal, Curt 1B R/R 6*3 215 SR .350-214-9-48-16-28-0
    MissippiSt Mitch Moreland 1B L-L 6*2 228 Jr. .342-202-7-50-29-25-1
    La Tech Albie Goulder 1B 6*3 205 jr .327-196-14-51-26-34-3
    NotreDame Mike Dury 1B S/L 6*5 240 SR .246-179-9-35-24-49-4
    Michigan Nate Recknagel* 1B R-R 6*2 215 Jr. .358-193-10-54-40-36-4
    MissippiSt Brian LaNinfa 1B L-R 6*0 220 Sr. .321-184-4-42-20-35-1
    Ok St Ridling, Rebel 1B R/R 6*3 225 Jr. .336-232-11-62-15-57-1
    Tex Chance Wheeless 1B 6*5 220 Sr.-3L .356-208-4-32-32-22-4
    Flor Int'l Petika, John 1B L/L 6*2 210 Jr. .342-219-7-56-9-26-2
    Or St Lennerton, Jordan 1B L/L 6*2 230 Jr. .327-159-6-42-26-31-0
    Ark Hamblin, Danny 1B R/R 6*1 209 Sr. .278-205-20-54-28-61-2
    USC Lucas Duda 1B 6*5 240 JR .275-171-6-31-29-32-3
    Maine Joel Barrett 1B R/R 6*1 220 SR .364-184-7-38-25-19-2
    LSU Jordan Mayer 1B R/R 6*3 257 Jr. .213-61-4-8-9-16-2
    J Madison Moses, Mitchell 1B 6'3" 220 r-Sr. .347-150-4-20-33-18
    Louisville Jorge Castillo 1B L/R 6*1 235 JR .290-183-4-42-8-24-1
    South Flor Daniel, Brandin 1B L/L 6*1 220 Jr. .270-200-7-45-25-57-0
    Wichita Jackson, Danny 1B R/R 6*3 220 RSr. .317-120-4-22-8-27-1
    Elon Chris Vasami 1B R/R 6*4 235 Sr. .315-197-5-44-21-44-2
    Memphis Joey Lieberman 1B R-R 5*10 210 Sr. .286-220-12-52-29-53-0
    Florida St Brandon Reichert 1B RR 6*3 215 RS SR .313-201-3-46-15-24-1

    Many college players end up playing out of position, wherever the team needs them to play.  So they often play numerous positions during the year.  Because of this many college rosters list players not at a position, but as "Infielders".  So I will have lists of players for each position, add also "infielders".

    Ok St Mach, Tyler 2B R/R 6*0 207 Sr. .408-223-15-73-21-24-1
    ASU Eric Sogard 2B L/R 5*10 180 Jr./2V .399-203-10-51-37-22-16
    C of Charl Chris Campbell 2B R/R 5*10 170 Sr. .388-255-10-77-17-14-4
    Flor Atlant Robbie Widlansky 2B 6*2 210 JR .445-227-15-67-23-27-9
    So Missip Trey Sutton 2B L/R 6*0 175 JR .370-235-7-37-34-19-12
    Minnesota Dan Lyons
  • Posted on May 31, 2007 at 1:48 PM
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  • Top 100-one week 'til draft

    When the draft starts next Thursday the Number One overall pick will be one of three players.  Tampa Bay will select either David Price, college pitcher, Matt Weiters, college catcher, or Josh Vitters, high school third baseman.

    Each of the 30 major league clubs will spend the next seven days cramming for the draft, baseballs equivelent of a final exam.  And each teams draft list will be different.  Sure, most of the top players on one teams list will look much like other teams lists.  But after the first round, the lists are very different.  Some teams will have 80 high school players in their top 100 players.  Other teams could have a majority of college players on their list.  Ten years from now, we will know who had the best draft.

    My list of the top 100 players has changed over the last three weeks.  Some players like HS 3B Will Middlebrooks and HS OF Cory Vaughn (son of Greg Vaughn) have moved up the list.  Others like Clemson lefty Dan Moskos, Oklahoma State 3B Matt Mangini, and offense-first college catchers J.P. Arencibia and Mitch Canhamn have moved down the list.  Like I said, there are 30 teams with thirty different draft lists, and my list is just one more. 

    1 David Price P C L-L 6*5 195
    2 Matt Wieters C C B-R 6*4 205
    3 Josh Vitters 3b H R-R 6*3 195
    4 Rick Porcello P H R-R 6*5 188
    5 Mike Moustakas 3b H L-R 6*1 185
    6 Phillippe Aumont P H R-R 6*7 225
    7 Jason Heyward of H L-L 6*2 198
    8 Blake Beavan P H R-R 6*7 210
    9 Ross Detwiler P C L-L
    10 Beau Mills 1B C L-R 6*3 205
    11 Matt Dominguez 3b H R-R 6*2 185
    12 MadisonBumgarner P H R-L 6*5 220
    13 Michael Main P H R-R 6*1 171
    14 Josh Smoker P H L-L 6*2 190
    15 Matt LaPorta 1b C
    16 Andrew Brackman p C R-R 6*9 230
    17 Casey Weathers P C R-R
    18 Tim Alderson P H R-R 6*7 208
    19 Kevin Ahrens 3b H B-R 6*1 180
    20 Devon Mesaraco C H
    21 Nevin Griffith P H R-R 6*4 180
    22 Jarrod Parker P H R-R 6*0 175
    23 Matt Harvey P H R-R 6*4 190
    24 Will Middlebrooks 3b H 6*4 200
    25 Daniel Moskos P C L-L 6*1 190
    26 Michael Burgess of H L-L 5*11 200
    27 Todd Frazier 3B C R-R 6*3 195
    28 Corey Borwn of C L-L 6*2 210
    29 Kellen Kulbacki of C
    30 Brett Cecil p C R-L 6*2 225
    31 Nick Schmidt P C L-L 6*4 215
    32 Brad Suttle 3b C
    33 Travis d'Arnaud C H R-R 6*0 180
    34 Jack McGeary P H L-L 6*3 200
    35 Kyle Blair P H R-R 6*4 200
    36 Drew Cumberland ss H L-R 5*10 170
    37 Joe Savery 1B C L-L 6*3 210
    38 Kyle Russell of C
    39 Peter Kozma ss H R-R
  • Posted on May 31, 2007 at 9:40 AM
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  • Tags: First Year Player Draft
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  • Responses to comments

    Thanks again for the reader comments.  Here are the answers: 

    #1  "Who out of this years draft do you see being in the show quickest and able to make an impact?"

    The players I see making it to the majors the quickest would mostly be the bullpen guys.  Guys like
    Brett Cecil from Maryland, Wynn Pelzer from Clemson,
    Cole St. Clair from Texas
    Eddie Kunz from Oregon State,
    Sam Demel from TCU,
    Jordan Chambless from Tx A&M,
    Casey Weathers from Vanderbilt, and Blair Erickson from Cal-Irvine could all make a quick rise to the majors.  But it all depends on the teams that draft them.  Looking at the hitters, I would say that Matt LaPorta from Florida,
    Matt Weiters of Georgia Tech,
    Kellen Kulbacki of James Madison, and Beau Mills of Lewis & Clark have the best chance.  Starting pitchers get fast-tracked based on team need as well.  That being said, I could see both Ross Detwiler and David Price in the majors sometime in 2008.  Plus there is always the chance that Price goes straight to the majors if he gets a Major League contract from Tampa Bay as the #1 overall pick.  It doesn't happen very often, but it could happen. 

    #2  "What about the sensational left-hander, John Flanagan, from Belleville West (IL) High School?? Where do you see him in the overall picture?"

    John Flanagan appears to be a solid, successful high school pitcher.  He is a 6'5" left-hander with excellent command.  He also sounds like he is leaning toward signing rather than going to college.  All these things lead me to believe he will drafted anywhere between the 3rd-6th rounds.  Seattle does a good job of drafting local players from the Pacific Northwest.  So they could possibly pick Flanagan a little early, possibly with the 52nd overall pick they received from Kansas City for signing Gil Meche.

    #3 "Great stuff, I am assuming you are waiting to see if guys like Scherzer, Latos and Walden sign. Where would they be rated if they were included?"

    Great question!  Latos and Walden were in my opinion two of the top high school pitchers from last years draft.  They dropped in last years draft and went to junior college.  If they don't sign before the draft, they would both be first round picks in 2007.  Scherzer would be best served by signing before the draft.  Being represented by Scott Boras is a huge handicap for players wanting to start major league careers.  He has done his part to wreck more careers than any other agent.  Scherzer is currently pitching independant league ball.  Reports have his velocity in the low 90's, but his fastball is straight and hittable.  So he could be the next Alan Embree, instead of the next Barry Zito.  If he goes back into the draft, the Cardinals might be interested with either pick 18, or pick 36.  I could also see Detroit taking him at #27, the Yankees at pick 30, or the pitching starved Washington Nationals at pick 31.

    Top 100-May 11, 2007

    Jonathan Mayo has his draft chat going right now. So hopefully some of you "draft-heads" out there are joining in the fun. The servers at work will not allow me access. I have updated my Top 100 list somewhat, and I will do so again next week. Enjoy the rankings and have a good weekend.

    1 David Price P C
    2 Josh Vitters 3b H
    3 Rick Porcello P H
    4 Matt Wieters-1b-p C C
    5 Beau Mills 1B C
    6 Andrew Brackman p C
    7 Mike Moustakas-c 3b H
    8 Jason Heyward of H
    9 Matt Harvey P H
    10 Ross Detwiler P C
    11 Phillippe Aumont P H
    12 Matt Dominguez 3b H
    13 Matt LaPorta 1b C
    14 Blake Beavan P H
    15 Daniel Moskos P C
    16 MadisonBumgarner P H
    17 Jarrod Parker P H
    18 Michael Main-of P H
    19 Josh Smoker P H
    20 Casey Weathers P C
    21 Brett Cecil p C
    22 Jack McGeary-1b P H
    23 Matt Mangini 3b C
    24 Yasmani Grandal C H
    25 Julio Borbon OF C
    26 Tim Alderson P H
    27 Todd Frazier-of-ss 3B C
    28 Nick Schmidt P C
    29 Joe Savery 1B C
    30 Grant Desme of C
    31 Peter Kozma ss H
    32 Michael Burgess of H
    33 Kentrail Davis of H
    34 Neil Ramirez P H
    35 Justin Jackson ss H
    36 Cole St.Clair P C
    37 Tanner Robles P H
    38 Nick Noonan-2b ss H
    39 Kevin Ahrens 3b H
    40 James Simmons P C
    41 Mitch Canham C C
    42 Devon Mesaraco C H
    43 Wendell Fairley of H
    44 Kyle Russell of C
    45 Tony Thomas 2B c
    46 Andrew Lambo-of 1b H
    47 Eric Eiland of H
    48 Jake Arrieta P C
    49 Brad Suttle 3b C
    50 Sean Morgan P C
    51 J.P. Arencibia C C
    52 Adrian Ortiz OF C
    53 Sean Doolittle-lhp 1B C
    54 Ryan Dent-ss-cf 2B H
    55 James Adkins P C
    56 Josh Horton SS C
    57 Danny Worth ss c
    58 Wynn Pelzer P C
    59 Wes Roemer P C
    60 Hunter Morris-of 1b H
    61 Brandon Hicks ss C
    62 Curt Casali-def C H
    63 Kellen Kulbacki of C
    64 Kevin Patterson-c 1b H
    65 Joshua Fields p C
    66 Brett Krill of H
  • Posted on May 11, 2007 at 12:06 PM
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  • The Art of Ranking

    Many thanks to the people that found my blog and left comments.  Today I want to take a moment to talk about putting together a draft list.  Specifically, in response to Kevin Ahrens and Jarrod Parker being ranked too low on my first Top 100 list.  It is very possible that they both are too low.  I had Ahrens listed at 54, which makes him a supplemental 1st round pick.  Then I had Parker at 69, which is a high 2nd round pick.  Ten years from now, we will know where they should have been ranked. 

    For fun, lets see what happened twenty years ago in the 1987 draft

    The list function is throwing data everywhere.  Please use this link to see the list.  http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/1987/Round-1-1.shtml

    Hindsight is 20-20 when it comes to the draft.  So in hindsight seven of the top ten teams drafting in 1987 didn't have players ranked properly.  So if I am wrong, I am not alone.

    One thing to keep in mind when looking at the draft is that every team has their own scouts and ranks players on their own.  Since it is mathematically impossible for 30 different teams to rank prospects identically, everyone has a different list when they go into the draft.  My list could be similar to some teams, and very different from other teams.  But nobody knows for sure.  My plan is to publish my Top 100 list about once a week, so I can provide the best info that I have.

    The same mathematical phenomena takes place in weekly polls of major college sports.  A bunch of experts, and/or coaches are polled, and everybody's list is slightly different.  That doesn't mean one expert is smarter than all the others.  It just means that people have different opinions.  You will also often notice that the polls don't agree with each other.  The 20th place team on one poll could be ranked 17th and 21st on different polls in the same week.  I will get my updated list here in next couple of days.